According to the Paris agreement, each country is required to provide a reliable inventory of greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) using the guidance provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under the Enhanced Transparency Framework, each country must apply IPCC 2006 guidelines to complete greenhouse gas inventories. The transition from the 1996 to 2006 guidelines will result in inventories reflecting quite different national greenhouse gas totals.
Professor Seungdo Kim and Dr. Kaleem Anwar Mir from the Research Centre for Climate Change and Energy, Hallym University, the Republic of Korea, along with Mr. Chunkyoo Park from the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea and Dr. Pallav Purohit from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria explored quantitative implications of using 2006 guidelines compared to 1996 guidelines in Pakistan’s greenhouse gas inventories. In the research article published in the journal Advances in Climate Change Research, Dr. Mir and colleagues have derived research outcomes that will help policymakers prioritize the key greenhouse gases and categories to be targeted in Pakistan’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) and waste sector using the 2006 guidelines.
Dr. Kim said: “This study should be seen as a direct continuation of the preceding one (Part I [Available online at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2020.05.002]) which discusses energy and industrial processes and product use (IPPU) in compliance with these IPCC guidelines.” Dr. Mir also added: “Our studies also provide sector-specific comparative time series (1994–2017) analysis of greenhouse inventories, identification of key categories, and national greenhouse emissions trend for Pakistan.”
A key category analysis of three major greenhouse gases (Carbon dioxide, Nitrous oxide, and Methane) for 1994 and 2017 identified seventeen and fifteen key categories each year. The energy sector accounted for eight key categories with the most significant CO2-eq emissions for both years. Using both level and trend analysis with guidelines from 1996 and 2006, Dr. Mir’s team conclude that the source categories emitting CO2 and CH4 should be prioritized for mitigation. The time series analysis from 1994 to 2017 using 2006 guidelines shows a consistent linear increase in the greenhouse gas emissions from the AFOLU sector. Agriculture was responsible for more than ninety percent of the emissions within the sector, with enteric fermentation being the major contributor. In general, the annual average growth rate was positive for all categories for the entire period. The waste sector was the third major source of greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan in 2017. Solid waste disposal and wastewater treatment and discharge were the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the waste sector, with methane and nitrous oxide being the main greenhouse gases emitted.
The comparative analysis of greenhouse gas inventories using 2006 and 1996 guidelines identified that the total national greenhouse gas emission by the latest guidelines from all source sectors was significantly lowered compared to the earlier one-based estimates. Carbon dioxide has a larger share according to the newest guidelines than the previous one. In contrast, nitrous oxide was lowered compared to the earlier one, and the allocation of methane remained similar in both guidelines. In general, the 2006 guidelines tend to enhance the overall accuracy of the emission estimates relative to the 1996 guidelines. For the AFOLU sector, the methane emissions estimates by the latest guidelines are higher. AFOLU sub-sectors-based emission estimates were widely different between them due to the updated default emission factors for the various sub-sectoral parameters. In waste sector trend based on the 2006 guidelines show a steady emission while the trend based on the 1996 guidelines shows deviations for different years, which might be due to refinement of methods and improved default emission factors in the last one.
This study has used the 2006 guidelines to develop greenhouse gas inventories, build a consistent time series of annual estimates, and conduct key category analysis for Pakistan. Dr. Mir concluded to Science Feature that based on the results of this study, the 1996 guidelines overestimated the national greenhouse gas emissions as compared to the 2006 guidelines, owing to updated methods and revised default emission factor values, further affecting base year emissions and reducing goal for NDCs. Moving onto this guideline will help Pakistan develop strategies and achieve long-term low greenhouse gas emissions in a more transparent manner under the Paris agreement.
Mir, Kaleem Anwar, Chunkyoo Park, Pallav Purohit, and Seungdo Kim. “Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emission inventory for Pakistan: Part II agriculture, forestry and other land use and waste.” Advances in Climate Change Research 12, no. 1 (2021): 132-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.003
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About the Authors
Dr. Seungdo Kim, Ph.D.
Dr. Seungdo Kim has been a Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences and Biotechnology at Hallym University, South Korea, since 1997. He received his B.S. in Oceanography from Seoul National University, his M.S. in Environmental Engineering from the University of Illinois, and his Ph.D. in Environmental Engineering from the University of Wisconsin. He is an expert on greenhouse gas inventory. His research field is the development of the country- and plant-specific emission factors of greenhouse gases. Presently, he is interested in developing catalytic pyrolysis processes to destroy fluorine greenhouse gases like HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. He was one of the lead authors in the waste sector for the 2019 Refinement of the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. He has served as a lead reviewer of National GHG Inventory Reports submitted by developed countries to UNFCCC since 2004. He served as one of the editorial board member of the IPCC GHG Emission Factor Database from 2009 to 2013.
Kaleem Anwar Mir, M.S.
Kaleem Anwar Mir is a Ph.D. Candidate at Hallym University, South Korea in the Research Centre for Climate Change and Energy, led by Dr. Seungdo Kim. He also holds the position of Scientific Officer at Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Ministry of Climate Change, Government of Pakistan. He has served as an expert reviewer of National GHG Inventory Reports submitted by developed countries to UNFCCC since 2012. He is a Chapter Scientist for the IPCC WGIII’s (Mitigation) forthcoming sixth assessment report. He received his B.S. in Chemical Engineering from University of the Punjab, Pakistan, and his M.S. in Environmental Management from National University of Singapore, where he conducted research on air quality improvement and greenhouse gas mitigation in Pakistan. His current research involves the integrated modelling analysis of air pollution control and greenhouse gas reduction strategies in Pakistan through applying advanced end-of-pipe emission control technologies and sustainable development measures.
Pallav Purohit, Ph.D.
Dr. Pallav Purohit received his Ph.D. degree in Energy Policy & Planning from IIT Delhi. He is currently a Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied systems analysis (IIASA), Austria. Before joining IIASA, Dr. Purohit worked as an e8 Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI), Germany. He was also a visiting faculty member to the Department of Built Environment & Energy Technology, Linnaeus University, Sweden; Institute of Political Science at the University of Zurich, Switzerland; visiting fellow at the School of International Development, University of East Anglia, UK and Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), New Delhi. He is an Associate Editor for the International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI) and editorial board member of Sustainability, Innovative Energy Policies and the Journal of Renewable Energy. His research interests include Science; technology and policy focused on energy and environmental issues of developing countries; energy economics; climate change; air pollution control and human health.