Managing drought in the Middle East and North Africa region has long been a daunting challenge for governments and communities that rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture and water resources. A new system is set to change this landscape. Developed by an international team led by Dr. Rachael McDonnell, Karim Bergaoui, Dr Makram BelhajFraj and Dr. Stephen Fragaszy from the International Water Management Institute, the Composite Drought Indicator provides a powerful way to monitor and manage drought. The findings, published in Scientific Reports, demonstrate its potential to significantly improve resilience to drought in the region.
This innovative system combines satellite data, which involves information collected from space-based instruments, with numerical models, which simulate real-world processes digitally, to track irregularities in rainfall, plant health, soil moisture, and the loss of water through evaporation and plant water use. These monthly updates are essential for monitoring droughts that impact farming and ecosystems, helping governments make faster and more informed decisions. As Dr. Fragaszy explained, “This system was developed in collaboration with national agencies to meet both technical and practical needs.” The tool has already been included in drought management plans in Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia, tailored to suit the agricultural and environmental conditions of each country.
Testing and improving the system involved a thorough process of validation, which means checking its accuracy and reliability through testing. The Composite Drought Indicator combines global satellite data with advanced techniques, such as special filters and advanced cloud gapfilling designed to address issues caused by cloud cover, where clouds obstruct accurate data collection. The results have shown more consistent and accurate drought detection. For example, in early 2022, the tool helped Morocco and Jordan allocate resources and provide drought relief based on reliable data. This adaptability makes the Composite Drought Indicator an effective tool for decision-makers in areas affected by extreme weather.
One of the key strengths of the Composite Drought Indicator is that it is designed to be user-friendly for government agencies. In Jordan, for instance, the integration of real-time rainfall data, meaning information updated immediately as rain occurs, and straightforward modeling methods allows local agencies to produce updates on their own. Additionally, web platforms in Morocco and Jordan enable policymakers to examine drought conditions at both seasonal and local levels, ensuring better targeting of resources and policies.
Experts involved in the project emphasize the importance of balancing accuracy with ease of use. As Dr. McDonnell noted, “The reliability and practicality of the Composite Drought Indicator rely on it being both precise and simple enough for officials without specialized training to use effectively.” This focus on usability ensures the tool is not only scientifically reliable but also practical for day-to-day use in areas with limited resources.
Building connections between scientific insights and practical policy-making, the Composite Drought Indicator is an important step toward achieving the goals of international frameworks like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. These frameworks are global agreements aimed at addressing climate issues and reducing disaster risks through coordinated efforts. Its flexible design could also serve as a model for addressing drought in other regions, contributing significantly to global efforts to adapt to climate change.
This vital tool highlights the value of international cooperation and technological innovation in tackling one of the world’s most urgent issues. The Middle East and North Africa region is now better equipped to face the severe impacts of drought, offering hope for a more sustainable and resilient future.
Journal Reference
Bergaoui K., Belhaj Fraj M., Fragaszy S., et al. “Development of a Composite Drought Indicator for Operational Drought Monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa Region.” Scientific Reports, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55626-0
