IPCC 2006 guidelines can change national greenhouse gas inventories

According to the Paris agreement, each country is required to provide a reliable inventory of greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) using the guidance provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under the Enhanced Transparency Framework, each country must apply IPCC 2006 guidelines to complete greenhouse gas inventories. The transition from the 1996 to 2006 guidelines will result in inventories reflecting quite different national greenhouse gas totals.

Professor Seungdo Kim and Dr. Kaleem Anwar Mir from the Research Centre for Climate Change and Energy, Hallym University, the Republic of Korea, along with Mr. Chunkyoo Park from the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea and Dr. Pallav Purohit from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria explored quantitative implications of using 2006 guidelines compared to 1996 guidelines in Pakistan’s greenhouse gas inventories. In the research article published in the journal Advances in Climate Change Research, Dr. Mir and colleagues have derived research outcomes that will help policymakers prioritize the key greenhouse gases and categories to be targeted in Pakistan’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) and waste sector using the 2006 guidelines.

Dr. Kim said: “This study should be seen as a direct continuation of the preceding one (Part I [Available online at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2020.05.002]) which discusses energy and industrial processes and product use (IPPU) in compliance with these IPCC guidelines.” Dr. Mir also added: “Our studies also provide sector-specific comparative time series (1994–2017) analysis of greenhouse inventories, identification of key categories, and national greenhouse emissions trend for Pakistan.”

A key category analysis of three major greenhouse gases (Carbon dioxide, Nitrous oxide, and Methane) for 1994 and 2017 identified seventeen and fifteen key categories each year. The energy sector accounted for eight key categories with the most significant CO₂-eq emissions for both years. Using both level and trend analysis with guidelines from 1996 and 2006, Dr. Mir’s team conclude that the source categories emitting CO₂ and CH₄ should be prioritized for mitigation. The time series analysis from 1994 to 2017 using 2006 guidelines shows a consistent linear increase in the greenhouse gas emissions from the AFOLU sector. Agriculture was responsible for more than ninety percent of the emissions within the sector, with enteric fermentation being the major contributor. In general, the annual average growth rate was positive for all categories for the entire period. The waste sector was the third major source of greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan in 2017. Solid waste disposal and wastewater treatment and discharge were the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the waste sector, with methane and nitrous oxide being the main greenhouse gases emitted.

The comparative analysis of greenhouse gas inventories using 2006 and 1996 guidelines identified that the total national greenhouse gas emission by the latest guidelines from all source sectors was significantly lowered compared to the earlier one-based estimates. Carbon dioxide has a larger share according to the newest guidelines than the previous one. In contrast, nitrous oxide was lowered compared to the earlier one, and the allocation of methane remained similar in both guidelines. In general, the 2006 guidelines tend to enhance the overall accuracy of the emission estimates relative to the 1996 guidelines. For the AFOLU sector, the methane emissions estimates by the latest guidelines are higher. AFOLU sub-sectors-based emission estimates were widely different between them due to the updated default emission factors for the various sub-sectoral parameters. In waste sector trend based on the 2006 guidelines show a steady emission while the trend based on the 1996 guidelines shows deviations for different years, which might be due to refinement of methods and improved default emission factors in the last one.

This study has used the 2006 guidelines to develop greenhouse gas inventories, build a consistent time series of annual estimates, and conduct key category analysis for Pakistan. Dr. Mir concluded to Science Feature that based on the results of this study, the 1996 guidelines overestimated the national greenhouse gas emissions as compared to the 2006 guidelines, owing to updated methods and revised default emission factor values, further affecting base year emissions and reducing goal for NDCs. Moving onto this guideline will help Pakistan develop strategies and achieve long-term low greenhouse gas emissions in a more transparent manner under the Paris agreement.

Journal Reference:

Mir, Kaleem Anwar, Chunkyoo Park, Pallav Purohit, and Seungdo Kim. “Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emission inventory for Pakistan: Part II agriculture, forestry and other land use and waste.” Advances in Climate Change Research 12, no. 1 (2021): 132-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.003

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